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The Funcas panel warns of a drop in GDP in the fourth quarter and that unemployment will barely drop in 2023 & More Latest News Here

 

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The unemployment rate will only be cut next year three tenths, from 13.3% to 13%

Nadia Calvio, First Vice President and Minister of the Economy, this Wednesday in CongressJuan Carlos HidalgoEFE
  • The OECD anticipates “a deterioration in growth” in all major economies, including Europe

The 19 study services that make up the panel of the Savings Banks Foundation (Funcas) they expect GDP to grow by 4.2% in 2022, in line with what they expected in July, but they forecast a “sharp slowdown” in the Spanish economy in the second half of this year with “very weak” growth in the third quarter (0.1%) and a fall of two tenths in the fourth (-0.2%).

For 2023, the forecast drops six tenths, to 1.9%, according to the report echoed by Efe, and the unemployment rate annual average will hardly be reduced: close in the 13.3% in 2022 –two tenths less compared to the previous panel- and in 2023 it will only go down to 13% in 2023 -a tenth less-.

This year, the national demand contribute 2.7 percentage points, one tenth more than the previous panel, and the foreign sector, one and a half points, one tenth less than forecast in July; while the next one, national demand will still drive activity, although less than estimated, while investment and household consumption will have lower growth.

Regarding inflationary pressures, the panel foresees that they will persist in “a context of deterioration and turbulence for the world and European economy”, although they expect a moderation of inflation in the remaining months of the year, largely due to base effects. Even so, the forecast for the average annual inflation rate of 2022 rises seven tenths, to the 8.6%, while that corresponding to the underlying inflation is increased by four tenths, up to the 5%.

As to 2023the consensus forecast has been revised upwards to 3.8%, for both the headline and core CPI, while the expected year-on-year rates for the headline index for December 2022 and December 2023 are 7.5% and 2.4%, respectively.

The panel expects a reduction of the public deficit in 2022 and 2023a negative balance of the public accounts that would be 5.2% of GDP this year and 4.6% next, “More pessimistic forecasts than those of the Government and those of the Bank of Spain,” the statement indicates.

In addition, they have been revised “strongly upwards” interest rate forecasts: the ECB’s deposit facility would be close to 1.5% at the end of the forecast period (half a point more than in the previous consensus) and the Eurbor would reach 2.3%, while the yield on the 10-year bond would exceed the 3.1%, one tenth more than in the July panel.

As Funcas explains, this is due to the accelerated withdrawal of stimuli in the face of the increasingly palpable risk of second-round effects on domestic prices and wages.

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